London's world status and house price boom is now hurting the middle class


By jamFace at 2013-08-04 17:13:12
London, UK
68 replies
10527 views
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2013-08-07 11:30:00

I... imagine it's time for me to get used to the fact that I'll never have a property.

Oh well - I kind of like renting. chiefly the part where I call the landlord whenever something breaks and he fixes it from his own pocket. I really love that bit.

When the bubble bursts land will be cheap. Remains to be seen how far it inflates before it bursts though: if it's too far it will bring the banks down, again, and the govt almost certainly will not this time be able to bail them out, so we'll be a kind of worse Greece. So you might not like to live in London then.
You're forgetting overseas buyers though unfortunately...they'll keep London propped up except we go into some sort of worldwide depression, which is looking increasingly unlikely.
So how does this work? If overseas buyers push London house prices up, how will they make a profit on their investment once even the upper-middle class won't be able to have the funds for purchasing property in London? Will they make a profit by buying and selling amongst each other as constantly increasing the prices? Is this genuinely going to be sustainable?


2013-08-07 16:07:00

That's why I moved out of London.

On a moderate salary of £50k, I'd be able to pay for a 3-bed in a non-slum area ..... never.

You could live somewhere like Leicester or the Stevenage area and commute to the city fairly well. I have a friend who bought a 2 bed with garden and garage for less than £180k and commutes to Moorgate to work. Depends what you want.
The commute would be torture though, Leicester to St. Pancras is about 1 hour 15 minutes and then put in 15-20 minutes to get to Moorgate.

Then factor in the train costs, from what I can tell a monthly period pass is £794.90 (£183~ a week) PLUS a zone 1 travelcard (or PAYG)

Obviously it's a personal evaluation and if it makes him happy then so be it, but from my perspective I think the whole tribulation would be too pricey in time and money to even be worth it.

Depends. He takes a nonstop train to Moorgate and has a 5 min walk to work from there. Rail card is £300/mth (I think), with a loan from the company for an annual ticket. His commute is a lot more pleasurable than mine and loads of others who take the tube from one side of London to the other, with changes, and then get home to a shitty house-share somewhere.
Yeah I can visualize the commute is less nerve-racking (when the national rail network is working...), but I just don't think I could stomach the £300 a month cost.

Mind you I presently pay roughly £170ish a month for the tube so I expect it's not a huge leap. Still, 25 minutes on the tube is better than over an hour!

I remember my manager eagerly leaving work earlier than usual at 5pm saying I'll get home by 7 tonight! People doing these commutes are mad, truly crazy


2013-08-07 20:13:00

I... imagine it's time for me to get used to the fact that I'll never have a property.

Oh well - I kind of like renting. chiefly the part where I call the landlord whenever something breaks and he fixes it from his own pocket. I really love that bit.

When the bubble bursts land will be cheap. Remains to be seen how far it inflates before it bursts though: if it's too far it will bring the banks down, again, and the govt almost certainly will not this time be able to bail them out, so we'll be a kind of worse Greece. So you might not like to live in London then.
You're forgetting overseas buyers though unfortunately...they'll keep London propped up except we go into some sort of worldwide depression, which is looking increasingly unlikely.
So how does this work? If overseas buyers push London house prices up, how will they make a profit on their investment once even the upper-middle class won't be able to have the funds for purchasing property in London? Will they make a profit by buying and selling amongst each other as constantly increasing the prices? Is this genuinely going to be sustainable?
The top end isn't only about profit, it's about having an amazing house in an splendid city. Then that just drags the rest up for the reason that if there's too big a differential in price vs. quality, people will bid the gap closed.

Also, there's the wealth conservation look - Greeks have been buying London property to keep their money out of the Greek system. Russians do the same.

Basically, it's not all (or even mostly) regarding profit to a lot of buyers.


2013-08-07 21:08:00

No. It's good for everybody forever. Interest rates will only go lower and prices will rise forever. Leverage up, it's a one way bet. When alotofhelp2buy comes out the government will lend the first 40%. What could go wrong?

Ps it's certainly not a pyramid scheme

We rather the term up two down scheme


2013-08-07 21:24:00

I... imagine it's time for me to get used to the fact that I'll never have a property.

Oh well - I kind of like renting. chiefly the part where I call the landlord whenever something breaks and he fixes it from his own pocket. I really love that bit.

When the bubble bursts land will be cheap. Remains to be seen how far it inflates before it bursts though: if it's too far it will bring the banks down, again, and the govt almost certainly will not this time be able to bail them out, so we'll be a kind of worse Greece. So you might not like to live in London then.
You're forgetting overseas buyers though unfortunately...they'll keep London propped up except we go into some sort of worldwide depression, which is looking increasingly unlikely.
Exactly. There is no bubble in London for the reason that it is propped up by more or less unlimited foreign hard cash and boost in population. (an extra 1 million people by 2020 and they are not building even a tiny portion of the new dwellings required).
That's a terrifying statistic! A net increase of 1 million??? If you're no on the ladder now you're screwed.
If you find that a shocking statistic then I think you need to watch the most eminent video you will ever see and absorb how this mindless pursuit of positive growth will finally end, and in a bad way.


2013-08-08 01:47:00

I... imagine it's time for me to get used to the fact that I'll never have a property.

Oh well - I kind of like renting. chiefly the part where I call the landlord whenever something breaks and he fixes it from his own pocket. I really love that bit.

When the bubble bursts land will be cheap. Remains to be seen how far it inflates before it bursts though: if it's too far it will bring the banks down, again, and the govt almost certainly will not this time be able to bail them out, so we'll be a kind of worse Greece. So you might not like to live in London then.
I genuinely don't imagine it will burst. With inflation and interest rates apt to be low in the long term, purchases only if truth be told need to think of the expense of servicing the mortgage rather than the headline cost of the house. The expense of servicing mortgages is quite low and expected to remain so for a long time.
Because the property bubble that took the banks down 5 years ago could in no way happen again.


2013-08-08 02:30:00

I... imagine it's time for me to get used to the fact that I'll never have a property.

Oh well - I kind of like renting. chiefly the part where I call the landlord whenever something breaks and he fixes it from his own pocket. I really love that bit.

When the bubble bursts land will be cheap. Remains to be seen how far it inflates before it bursts though: if it's too far it will bring the banks down, again, and the govt almost certainly will not this time be able to bail them out, so we'll be a kind of worse Greece. So you might not like to live in London then.
You're forgetting overseas buyers though unfortunately...they'll keep London propped up except we go into some sort of worldwide depression, which is looking increasingly unlikely.
So how does this work? If overseas buyers push London house prices up, how will they make a profit on their investment once even the upper-middle class won't be able to have the funds for purchasing property in London? Will they make a profit by buying and selling amongst each other as constantly increasing the prices? Is this genuinely going to be sustainable?
No, it's not sustainable, of course.


2013-08-08 03:01:00

I... imagine it's time for me to get used to the fact that I'll never have a property.

Oh well - I kind of like renting. chiefly the part where I call the landlord whenever something breaks and he fixes it from his own pocket. I really love that bit.

When the bubble bursts land will be cheap. Remains to be seen how far it inflates before it bursts though: if it's too far it will bring the banks down, again, and the govt almost certainly will not this time be able to bail them out, so we'll be a kind of worse Greece. So you might not like to live in London then.
You're forgetting overseas buyers though unfortunately...they'll keep London propped up except we go into some sort of worldwide depression, which is looking increasingly unlikely.
There was a report in the Guardian a few months bac regarding how the richest areas of London are becoing ghost towns. Chelsea, Knightsbridge, Kensington etc. Foreign investors are buying up enormous amounts of properties and not living in them, or living in them for a month a year.


2013-08-08 04:51:00

I... imagine it's time for me to get used to the fact that I'll never have a property.

Oh well - I kind of like renting. chiefly the part where I call the landlord whenever something breaks and he fixes it from his own pocket. I really love that bit.

When the bubble bursts land will be cheap. Remains to be seen how far it inflates before it bursts though: if it's too far it will bring the banks down, again, and the govt almost certainly will not this time be able to bail them out, so we'll be a kind of worse Greece. So you might not like to live in London then.
You're forgetting overseas buyers though unfortunately...they'll keep London propped up except we go into some sort of worldwide depression, which is looking increasingly unlikely.
So how does this work? If overseas buyers push London house prices up, how will they make a profit on their investment once even the upper-middle class won't be able to have the funds for purchasing property in London? Will they make a profit by buying and selling amongst each other as constantly increasing the prices? Is this genuinely going to be sustainable?
The top end isn't only about profit, it's about having an amazing house in an splendid city. Then that just drags the rest up for the reason that if there's too big a differential in price vs. quality, people will bid the gap closed.

Also, there's the wealth conservation look - Greeks have been buying London property to keep their money out of the Greek system. Russians do the same.

Basically, it's not all (or even mostly) regarding profit to a lot of buyers.

a number of factors to be measured for this to be sustained:

  • london continues to exist at the top of the world's most desired cities (at least in the top ten except i'd say top five)
  • 'world cities' go on to be few and concentrated
  • concentrated wealth at the crown of the pyramid constant or increasing relative to total world wealth
  • london livable space continues to be restricted due to zoning and density restrictions (good in that you keep the feel of the place architecturally and make it less crowded and bad in that it limits affordability). skyscrapers would ruin a large amount the city in more ways than you can imagine
  • the english legal organism maintains its reputation as a reliable, efficient system that protects rights and prevents abuse
  • simple tax systems in the UK comparative to the rest of the world (france, USA, etc) continues. i am not referring to lower taxes as much as clarity and simplicity in application. intricate tax regimes keep foreigners from buying in a lot of places due to uncertainty

2013-08-08 07:54:00

I... imagine it's time for me to get used to the fact that I'll never have a property.

Oh well - I kind of like renting. chiefly the part where I call the landlord whenever something breaks and he fixes it from his own pocket. I really love that bit.

When the bubble bursts land will be cheap. Remains to be seen how far it inflates before it bursts though: if it's too far it will bring the banks down, again, and the govt almost certainly will not this time be able to bail them out, so we'll be a kind of worse Greece. So you might not like to live in London then.
I genuinely don't imagine it will burst. With inflation and interest rates apt to be low in the long term, purchases only if truth be told need to think of the expense of servicing the mortgage rather than the headline cost of the house. The expense of servicing mortgages is quite low and expected to remain so for a long time.
Because the property bubble that took the banks down 5 years ago could in no way happen again.
a though provoking comment if short and, taking it into consideration seriously, reminds me that 'world cities' such as london and NYC did not see a failure in prices as did the wider market in 2008's worldwide real estate crash.


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